MLP 2026 Preview: Why New Jersey and St. Louis Won the Winter While Dallas Collapsed

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How the Off-Season Redrew the League

The dust has finally settled on one of the most chaotic periods of roster reconstruction in the history of Major League Pickleball. As the twenty franchises prepare to converge on Dallas for the opening fixtures on the 22nd of May, the reality of the recent auction draft and the subsequent flurry of trades has become starkly apparent. While the fundamental mechanics of the professional game remain unchanged, the economic and strategic disparity between the league’s front offices has never been more obvious. For a select few, the winter months were a masterclass in roster construction and the ruthless application of financial muscle. For others, a series of baffling decisions has effectively crippled their championship ambitions before a single serve has been struck.

Why the Auction System Creates Clear Tiers

To understand the current hierarchy of the 2026 season, one must first examine the harsh realities of the MLP auction system. The twenty teams constructing their rosters for the upcoming campaign operate under a structure where deep pockets generally secure the premier talent. Following the February draft, teams entered a trading window to finalise their starting foursomes, resulting in a league that is now heavily stratified into clear tiers of title contenders, middle-of-the-pack hopefuls, and basement dwellers.

The connection between budget and success is absolute. Franchises that possess the capital to outbid their rivals for established stars inevitably rise to the top of the standings. Conversely, small-budget operations like the Miami Pickleball Club are forced to rely heavily on their scouting networks. Miami has proven exceptionally adept at identifying emerging international and domestic talent, assembling a 2026 roster featuring Yuta Funemizu, Nicolas Acevedo, Isabella Dunlap, and Estee Widdershoven. Yet, without the financial resources to retain their discoveries or acquire proven champions, they remain relegated to the bottom tier of the league. At the absolute bottom sits the Florida Smash, a franchise that essentially stood still during the off-season, fielding a team of Cason Campbell, Travis Rettenmaier, Zoey Weil, and Martina Frantova that appears entirely unequipped to compete at this level.

Why St. Louis and New Jersey Stand Above the Rest

At the absolute summit of the league sit two franchises that have perfectly executed their off-season strategies. The St. Louis Shock and the New Jersey 5’s are the undisputed big spenders of the MLP, and their financial commitment has yielded the two most formidable rosters in the sport.

St. Louis elected to retain all four of their starters from the previous year, securing Hayden Patriquin, Gabe Tardio, Anna Bright, and Kate Fahey. The cornerstone of this strategy was the significant financial outlay required to keep Bright, ensuring they maintained their core identity. The tactical advantage for St. Louis lies heavily in their men’s doubles partnership; Patriquin and Tardio currently form the most lethal male pairing in the game, capable of dominating the kitchen line against any opposition. The only minor vulnerabilities for the Shock appear in the Dreambreaker format, where they are solid but not spectacular, and the fact that Fahey is still developing into a definitive top-ten doubles player.

However, they face an equally terrifying opponent in the New Jersey 5’s. Featuring Will Howells, Noe Khlif, Anna Leigh Waters, and Jorja Johnson, the New Jersey roster is a masterpiece of complementary skills. The acquisition of Johnson is arguably the most impactful move of the entire off-season. As a predominantly right-sided player, she is the ideal tactical fit to partner with Waters in women’s doubles, while also forming a highly effective mixed doubles team alongside Khlif. With four incredibly strong doubles combinations and a dominant Dreambreaker lineup, New Jersey has constructed a roster entirely devoid of weak points.

How Dallas Let a Contender Slip

While St. Louis and New Jersey provide a blueprint for championship management, the Dallas Flash offer a masterclass in front-office mismanagement. In an off-season defined by strategic manoeuvring, Dallas authored what is widely considered the worst string of decisions in the league, and the damage was entirely self-inflicted.

Entering the draft period, Dallas faced a critical choice regarding their retained players. In a baffling move, they elected to cut Jorja Johnson instead of her brother, JW Johnson. The tactical error here was profound. Had they released JW Johnson, the sheer lack of demand for elite male players among the other big-budget teams meant Dallas could have almost certainly reacquired him during the auction draft. This path would have allowed them to field a devastating lineup featuring Augie Ge, either JW Johnson or another top male player, alongside Jorja Johnson and Tyra Black. Such a combination would have guaranteed them top-tier status based on the overwhelming strength of their women’s side.

Instead, by releasing Jorja Johnson—who was promptly acquired by the title-favourite New Jersey 5’s—Dallas dismantled their own competitive advantage. They are now left with a roster of Ge, JW Johnson, Black, and Callie Smith. While they will likely secure enough victories to limp into the playoffs, their championship window has been firmly slammed shut. Compounding the error, rectifying the mistake through the trade market is nearly impossible; they desperately require a specialist right-side female player, severely limiting their negotiation options with teams like the Chicago Slice.

The Middle Tier Still Has Questions to Answer

Between the title favourites and the basement dwellers lies a fiercely competitive middle tier, populated by teams hoping that internal chemistry or a sudden loss of form from the heavyweights might open a path to glory.

The defending champions, the Columbus Sliders, present a fascinating case study in calculated risk. Returning three of their four title-winning starters—Andrei Daescu, CJ Klinger, and Parris Todd—the franchise made the surprising decision to drop Lea Jansen. They replaced her with Danni-Elle Townsend, a player who has shown flashes of brilliance in Australia but remains untested against the relentless pressure of the American professional circuit. However, Columbus demonstrated sharp situational awareness by picking up Alix Truong after the draft. Truong is a highly capable operator, and it would not be a surprise to see her eventually claim the starting spot over Townsend as the season progresses.

Elsewhere, the LA Mad Drops are resting their entire campaign on the shoulders of one unproven player. Boasting a lineup of Ben Johns, Max Freeman, Catherine Parenteau, and Jade Kawamoto, LA possesses the ultimate weapon in Johns, provided he remains fully engaged with the team format. Parenteau and Kawamoto are an elite pairing, though they suffered a slight dip in form at the conclusion of 2025. Ultimately, the Mad Drops will rise or fall based on the performance of Freeman. For LA to challenge New Jersey or St. Louis, Freeman must immediately establish himself as a top-fifteen player. It is a massive burden of expectation, and many observers question whether the franchise would have been better served pursuing a more established name like Christian Alshon in the trade market.

The Real Battle Was Won in the Boardroom

As the twenty teams prepare for the opening serves in Texas, the narrative arc of the 2026 season appears heavily predetermined by the events of the winter. Major League Pickleball is maturing into a competition where on-court heroics can rarely overcome fundamental flaws in roster construction. The financial muscle and tactical clarity of the St. Louis Shock and the New Jersey 5’s have placed them in a league of their own.

The campaign will wind its way across the country before culminating in the championship finals in New York at the end of August. While injuries, dramatic losses of form, or unexpected trade window manoeuvres can always disrupt the established order, a collision course between St. Louis and New Jersey seems almost inevitable. For teams like the Dallas Flash, the long months ahead will serve as a harsh, weekly reminder that championships are often lost in the boardroom long before the players ever step onto the court.

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